Nightmare scenario

While doing my daily analysis of polls in battleground states, I stumbled across a very real nightmare situation. As we know, for a candidate to win the white house, he needs 270 electoral votes to win the election. There are a total of 538 electoral votes. However, 538 divided by two equals 269. What the heck happens if after the election, we end up with a 269-269 tie? Despite what the national media is recently indicating, I have no doubt that this will be a very tight election. For instance, Al Gore had about the same lead over W. in 2000 at this point and we all know what happened there. Let’s say that Barack Obama wins almost every state that John Kerry won plus he takes Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. But, John McCain wins New Hampshire, which John Kerry won. McCain is very popular in New Hampshire and the state has a lot of independents and political “mavericks”. That would lead to a 269-269 tie. That is only one of countless different ways we could end up with a tie. Under this scenario, called the “unit rule”, the House of Representatives would vote to decide who the next president is. Before you Democrats start rejoicing, it is not that simple. Right now, the Democrats have an advantage in the house and it looks like they are going to pick up about a dozen seats in the 2008 election. So this means Obama wins? Again, slow down my friends. Under the Unit Rule, every state would get one vote. That means that the state of California with 53 U.S. representatives will all huddle together and cast a single vote. Other states like Wyoming and Alaska, have one representative. Which means Wyoming is just as important as California under the Unit Rule. Also, the current house will not vote, the newly inducted class will vote on the next president which means it is way too early to predict how certain states would vote. Can you imagine what a political nightmare this would be?! It would be a political firestorm like we have never seen!! Only about half of the states have laws requiring the electors to cast their vote exactly as indicated by the population of the state. You might be saying so what? Here’s the problem. A state like Arkansas has more Democrat US representatives than Republicans. However, the state will probably go for McCain by a huge margin. Do they satisfy their party and vote for Obama and anger their constituents and risk not being re-elected or do they vote for McCain, despite being Democrats, and basically have the Democrat leadership punish them by withdrawing any future campaign funding and take away any leadership positions they may have. If the Unit Rule were to happen, the vote would be January 6, 2009. That would mean over two months of chaos! A part of me is fearful but another part of me is drooling with excitement. Needless to say, I would be plenty happy if Obama won by a comfortable 50 electoral votes and we don’t have to worry about this. I just want you to keep in mind that this is a possibility.

1. I am definitely getting excited for the start of basketball season – both NBA and college. I have low expectations but I am still excited. All three of the teams I cheer for are in the same boat. The Cyclones suffered many losses this past off season to graduation and transfer. They welcome seven new players at almost every single position. Will Diante Garrett or incoming freshman Dominique Buckley prove that they can be the point guards of the future? We have heard a lot of shooting guard Lucca Steigger. Will he live up to the hype? What about the junior college big men transferring in? Will they be able to at least equal Jiri Hubalek? There are more questions than answers for the Cyclones. The goal is to be on the NIT bubble this year. The gophers welcome in a top ten recruiting class in the country. They have four incoming freshman who were top 100 recruits. The big question will be can the new freshman live up to the hype so the gophs can make a run in 2010. The Timberwolves had the 3rd worst record in the NBA last year. However, they have made some great moves this off-season. They have got rid of a lot of bad contracts that were weighing them down (Mike James, Marko Jaric, Juwan Howard, Trenton Hassell, Antoine Walker, and Troy Hudson) and have a nice young nucleus of Randy Foye, Rashad McCants, Rodney Carney, Corey Brewer, Kevin Love, Mike Miller, and Al Jefferson. This team will be vastly improved. Most importantly, they have FOUR first round draft picks and three 2nd round picks next year. The future is finally starting to look bright for the Timberwolves. I hope that they can trade some of those picks for talent.