Another brick in the wall

I have moved back from optimistic to just cautiously optimistic that Obama will win the presidency. As usual, the races continue to tighten. Let’s not forget that a month before the election, John Kerry had a ten point lead and Al Gore had a 16 point lead with only weeks left. Polls have a history of tightening. That is exactly what is happening right now. Andrew even sent me the most recent Associated Press poll showing Obama with only a one point lead. Here are the new updates: Obama will win every state that John Kerry won. Former battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, et cetera, Obama has at least a ten point lead in. I figure it is too late in the election to make up ten points unless “The unthinkable happens”; which I will get to later. John Kerry won 252 electoral votes. As we know, you need 270 votes to win the presidency. In addition, John Kerry has a ten point lead in New Mexico and a twelve point lead in Iowa. Those are both states that George W. Bush won. That puts Obama’s new total (Kerry’s 252 + Iowa’s 7 + New Mexico’s 5) at 264. I think for sure that Obama will win at least 264 votes. However, that’s not good enough. Despite their being 50 states, it will only come down to Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. If Obama wins one of those states, he is the president. If he wins 5 or 6 out of the 7 remaining, the pundits will declare the election a landslide. I think he will win at least one unless the “unthinkable” happens.

Okay, John, what is “The Unthinkable”. What is John McCain’s greatest strength? It is clearly not the economy. His greatest strength would be dealing with a world conflict, military issues, or national security threats. Funny, John Kerry had a big lead and then about this time four years ago, Osama Bin Laden released another video. What timing Mr. Bin Laden has! If something major happens in the world, like Russia invades Georgia again, or Israel and Palestine go at it, or there is a major terrorist attack on America or one of our allies, immediately all of the media will turn their attention away from the economy and on to that. Guess who will benefit greatly? John McCain. If something major happens in the next few weeks, I could see McCain sweeping the battleground states and winning the White House. Not only is that McCain’s greatest strength; it is probably Obama’s greatest weakness. Please pray for world peace… at the very least to last another 12 days.

1. Do you remember about a year ago when the Conservative press just ripped John Edwards to shreds for using $400 of his campaign funds for a haircut. That is a laughable offense now that we have found out that Sarah Palin has spent $150,000 of campaign funds on clothes and $20,000 on make-up. In case you were wondering, all of the other candidates use their own money on clothes; apparently Sarah Palin thinks that the wealthy GOP donors should fun her $800 Neiman Marcus blouses. During the Republican National Convention, she spent $75,000 in one trip to Neiman Marcus in downtown Minneapolis. That amount just boggles my mind. In case you are wondering, the big GOP donors are not amused: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14840.html or http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/22/AR2008102202187.html?hpid=artslot or http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/22/morning-buzz-palin-expenses/. In case you were wondering, Palin’s annual salary as governor: $125,000. www.politico.com has a full list of what she purchased as every cent that the Republican Party or Democrat Party has to be submitted to the Dept of Treasury and becomes public record. My favorite thing that Palin purchased and charged the Republican Party: A $98 pacifier. You don’t find a lot of hockey moms or Joe Six-Packs with that amount of money hanging from their closets.

2. In case any of you were wondering, Bill O’Reilly will be around for a long time. He just signed a long term deal at a cool $10,000,000 a year!!

3. Currently listening to “Times like These’ by the Foo Fighters. Album: One by One